California’s oil and jet fuel supply is getting slammed by a perfect storm of unfortunate timing—and help is years away

Europe is facing more widespread fuel shortages heading into the summer as the war in the Middle East drags on, but shortfalls—especially for jet fuel—will soon spread to California and the broader West Coast as the global energy supply shock ripples across the world. While the U.S. leads the world in crude oil production, California is not able to enjoy the bounty as much as the rest of the country. The Golden State—the fourth-largest economy in the world—essentially operates as an island sandwiched between the Pacific Ocean on one side and mountainous terrain on the other. That makes it difficult and expensive to build oil and fuel pipelines. A tougher regulatory environment and heightened fuel standards have also made the state’s refineries less economical over the years. The bottom line is California must import a lot of its oil, gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel from Asia—a region that is itself currently struggling with shortages because of its reliance on Middle Eastern supplies. And, in something of a perfect storm of unfortunate timing, the Iran war coincides with the recent shuttering of the Phillips 66 Los Angeles refinery and the April closure of Valero Energy’s Benicia refinery near San Francisco. The two complexes combined for nearly 20% of California’s oil-refining capacity. Valero also is weighing the future of its Wilmington refinery near Los Angeles. “It’s real terrible timing for California to see the loss of two refineries at a time when Asia is struggling with oil supplies of its own,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. “If we don’t have some concrete [peace] deal here in the next three weeks, then I’m really nervous for the West Coast this summer in terms of jet fuel,” De Haan told Fortune . “That’s not going to be great for California’s economy.” Norse Atlantic Airways announced this week the cancelation of all its summer flights from Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). Delta Air Lines is canceling a handful of U.…