How Trump’s war screwed you out of your Trump tax refund: Wall Street has the receipts

The promise was simple and seductive: pass the One Big Beautiful Bill, flood American wallets with historic tax refunds, and watch the consumer economy roar. For a few weeks this winter, it looked like it might actually work. Then the bombs started falling on Iran. Now Wall Street has delivered its verdict. Two of the most closely watched economic research teams on the Street—Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley—reviewed the numbers and reached the same sobering conclusion: the Iran war’s knock-on effect on oil prices has almost entirely canceled out the biggest consumer tax windfall in years. For lower-income Americans, the ledger may be in the red. The setup When Congress passed the OBBBA last year, economists were genuinely bullish. The legislation—retroactive to the 2025 tax year—included no taxes on tips and overtime, a higher child tax credit, a higher standard deduction, an expanded SALT deduction, and a new senior deduction. Even the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the nonpartisan think tank that generally opposes deficit-increasing legislation and has gotten into a war of words with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on account of its criticism, acknowledged that it would lead to a “sugar high” for the economy, boosting growth in the short term. In late 2025 and early 2026, Trump and the White House ran an aggressive promotional campaign around the refund season. On Truth Social in February , Trump wrote that refunds would be “substantially greater than ever before,” claiming “in some cases, estimates are that over 20% will be returned to the taxpayer.” He urged Americans: “Don’t spend all of this money in one place!” The White House formally declared in January that Trump was delivering “ the largest tax refund season in U.S. history ,” projecting that average refunds would rise by $1,000 or more compared to 2025. The House Ways and Means Committee amplified that figure, citing a Piper Sandler analysis projecting $91 billion in total refund growth. …