Voorspellingsmarkten groeien explosief, maar kunnen ze manipulatie weerstaan?

Prediction markets have grown into a major financial segment with potential for trillions in annual volume, with companies like Robinhood promoting a "prediction markets supercycle." These markets can effectively aggregate information and outperform traditional polling when real money is involved, as demonstrated during the 2024 elections. However, the industry faces a critical vulnerability: the fundamental assumption that outcomes can be observed rather than influenced breaks down when participants with inside knowledge or ability to affect events can manipulate markets for profit.