US Navy’s ‘hellscape’ drone plan could complicate China’s Taiwan playbook, experts say

The U.S. Navy’s plan to deploy thousands of autonomous drone vessels in the Indo-Pacific by 2030 has received cautious support from Taiwanese defense analysts. While they agree the concept could increase costs for any Chinese military action against Taiwan, they warn that production timelines, logistics, and Taiwan’s own stalled drone programs may limit its effectiveness. These assessments follow Capt. Garrett Miller’s confirmation that the Navy expects to field over 30 medium unmanned surface vessels in the Indo-Pacific by 2030, along with thousands of smaller drone boats and aerial systems operating from both manned and unmanned ships. This initiative is part of a broader U.S. Indo-Pacific Command effort to create what Adm. Samuel Paparo has called a “hellscape,” saturating contested waters with autonomous systems to deter or counter any PLA action against regional targets, including Taiwan. The case for drone boats around Taiwan Taiwan faces a growing naval disadvantage compared to mainland China, so affordable, disposable uncrewed vessels are attractive. If the PLA has to track and attack many more targets, a swarm of drone boats could make a blockade or amphibious assault much more costly. Zivon Wang, a military analyst at the Chinese Council of Advanced Policy Studies in Taipei, said these systems could also interfere with Beijing’s use of civilian fishing and commercial ships for grey-zone tactics at sea. Wang added that if the U.S. can produce enough of them , they would be very useful in the Taiwan Strait and nearby waters. Obstacles around the ‘hellscape’ plan Unmanned surface vessels are substantially harder to mass-produce than aerial drones. They are larger, more expensive to store, more vulnerable to harsh sea conditions, and moving large flotillas across the Pacific would be difficult to conceal. The Indo-Pacific, Wang noted, is enormous — only a limited number could realistically be deployed near Taiwan at any given time. Max Lo, executive director …